Wrapping Up
NFL Week 18
The Final Full Slate of NFL Football
Playoffs are a Week Away
Week 18. What a ride it’s been. The final week of the season is tricky since few teams lack a true motivation to get all their starters out there.
Cherrish these next couple weekends packed with meaningful football, because before you know it, it’s all gone.
Also, an update on what’s to come in 2026…
Still in the process of cleaning a few things up, but we are leaving The Degenerate back in 2025. More details to follow in the next few weeks.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 33-27-1 (+2.01 Units)
CFB: 23-30-1 (-9.87Units)
NFL WEEK 18
Carolina vs Bucs -3 Total 43 (Degen’s Best Bet)
The NFC South SHOULD have come down the winner of this game. What an end to the season that would have been. Unfortunately, the Atlanta Falcons had to go and fuck everything up by beating the Rams last week.
A Week 18 showdown between Baker and Bryce had potential to be win and you’re in, crowning the NFC South champ and clinching a playoff berth. Now, we have to wait and see the result of the Saints/Falcons game tomorrow.
If the Bucs win, they also need the Saints to win. If the Panthers win - they are in. If the Panthers lose, but the Falcons win, the Panthers are in. What a mess, and Tampa has nobody to blame but themselves (and the Falcons, fuck them too.) The Bucs have been a DISASTER in the second half of the season, coming off an embarrassing loss to Quinn Ewers in Miami.
For whatever reason, these late season Bucs and Panthers games always have fireworks. Historically, those fireworks have come from the Bucs offense. Last year, Baker threw for 5 touchdown passes. A few seasons ago, Mike Evans had 3 touchdown catches. But this Panthers offense is different, and so is this Bucs defense. I think scoring comes from both sides.
Baker is clearly injured, but that’s no excuse for his poor play. If the Bucs had any sort of competent backup, I think they would have already made the switch. I’m also concerned that Mike Evans isn’t fully healthy and also a bit older. Nevertheless, the Bucs offense is as healthy as it can possibly be in terms of weapons for Baker. Godwin, Mike, Ekbuga and McMillan all good to go. But the guy I think they lean on and finds success is Bucky Irving.
After this “tiff” on the sideline in Miami, I think the offensive line responds. Bucky to score a touchdown is my favorite player prop of the season. But the best bet in week 18 will be points.
The Pick: OVER 43 (-110)
Browns at Bengals -7.5 Total 44.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
The Bengals have kicked it into high gear the last few weeks against inferior opponents. Out-scoring the Dolphins and Cardinals by a combined 82-35 tally.
Now it’s the final game of the year with a division rival coming to town, and neither team has anything to play for.
The Browns are coming off their Super Bowl for 2025. Beating the Steelers and preventing them from clinching the AFC North.
The biggest story line of this game is Myles Garrett chasing the sack record.
You may be saying to yourself these teams always play each other close. And earlier this year that proved true as the Browns were a decent kicker away from pulling the upset and ultimately lost 17-16.
But when the games are in Cincy it’s a different story:
2024: Bengals 24 Browns 6
2023: Bengals 31 Browns 14
2022: Bengals 23 Browns 10
The Bengals LOVE to make a late run just to make everyone believe that next year will be there year and I don’t see this as being any different.
The Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-110 FD)
Seahawks at 49ers +2.5 Total 47.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
The 49ers are flying high. They’ve scored 150+ points over the last four weeks and haven’t lost a game since early November. Brock Purdy looks like the most comfortable QB in the NFL. It’s not that I’m not impressed, but I do genuinely believe this team and offense are overperforming and reaping the benefit of an easier schedule to end the year.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, are a great team with a great defense, who somehow are even better on the road than they are at home under Mike McDonald (14–2 over the last two years). We’ve reached the part of the year where everyone assumes Sam Darnold is about to turn into a pumpkin — but I say “not so fast, my friend”. I think Sam Darnold can have success against this banged-up, overperforming defense.
This amazing Seattle defense can slow down the Niners’ attack, with Kittle and Trent Williams banged up. Give me Seahawks ML. 🟢
The Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-110 FD)
RECAP:
NFL
Bucs/Panthers OVER 43 (-110) - Degen
Bengals -7.5 (-110 FD) - Greg
Seahawks -2.5( -110 FD) - Steak