You can smell the Madnesss
Off-season Week 3
Two weeks into our golf picks, and we haven’t found a winner. Fade us at your own risk though… WE’RE DUE!
Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
The second leg of the Florida Swing arrives in Orlando this week at Arnie’s track, Bay Hill. It’s always an entertaining tournament, even though the course is rather generic. There’s a lot of golfers resting this week after enduring Concession and preparing for the The Players. Still plenty of talent in the field however, and tons of value plays out there. Let’s get picking:
Sungjae Im (20/1)
Guy loves playing in Florida. Up and down last week but his last two starts at Bay Hill are solo 3rd and Tied 3rd. Pull the trigger, and maybe even take a bigger swing than just 1 unit.
Tommy Fleetwood (40/1)
Somewhat of a quiet start to the season but that’s okay this time of year. Fleetwood’s ball striking is elite, and every year at Bay Hill you see at least one or two British players in real contention. Grab Tom while he’s under the radar.
Harris English (50/1)
Already has a win this year in Hawaii, and was considered the hottest player on tour in the wrap around season. Only concern is a bit of rust as he has taken some time tournaments off… but 50/1 seems like great odds for a track he can absolutely win at and doesn’t require much in the form of preparation.
Emiliano Grillo: (+750 Top 10)
The Argentine has a good track record here and arrives in Orlando after going 7 under in the final round in Puerto Rico last week. Love taking a guy who was heating up at the end of the previous tournament. 110/1 odds to win might even be worth the lottery ticket.
Hudson Swafford (+500 Top 20)
The most golfer name of all time has taken a few weeks off. He has flirted with high finishes here before. 5/1 to finish top 20 seems like a good play.
Down nine units in 2021, but all it takes is one!
Let’s check in on the Trendies!
So, last week we mentioned there might be some opportunity with backing NBA teams playing their second leg of a back-to-back. We tracked it last week and it turns out – it’s profitable! The week ended 9-6 (+3 units). The other trend we have our eyes on are the -6.5 favorites winning outright. The ML ranges from -250/-280, but again, these are hitting at an 85-90% rate. You just need to be over 75% to be profitable.
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