Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Super Wild Card weekend was a success for the Degens! We went 4-1-1, and if you tailed us you might have gone 5-1 as points poured onto Washington once the news of Alex Smith broke. Good, great, grand, WONDERFUL! But there’s no time to pat ourselves on the back with four more monster games this weekend - just keep swimming
McVay all the way - Rams @ Packers -6.5 Total 45.5
There’s two ways to look at this game. You’re either telling yourself Aaron Rodgers, the 2020 NFL MVP, is playing out of his mind, and it’s his year. Or, you’re telling yourself that the Rams defense is badass, and it doesn’t matter who they start at QB, because McVay is the fucking man. Us? We are riding with McVay here. It’s been torture to fade the Packers this year which for some reason we found ourselves doing way too many times…but the Rams are feisty. And it just so happens, we like feist! The public money is already pumping in on the Pack (60% of tickets) and the line hasn’t moved. Not quite a reverse*, but Vegas knows they can’t give this defense too many points. If you’re going player props here – we like both RB’s. Akers has been hot, so let’s keep riding him over, and Aaron Jones should have himself a day. Jaylen Ramsey is going to have his hands full with Adams, and Arod is smart enough not to force it. Jones should eat on the ground and in the passing game. We think it’ll be a game of chess, which means under.
The Pick – Rams +7 (buy the half for a push) and Under 45.5
*A reverse line for those of you who are not familiar, is when the majority of people are betting on one side, but the spread moves in the opposite direction. Signaling that the big money in Vegas knows something the public does not.
All good things come to an end - Ravens @ Bills -2.5 Total 50
This one hurts. The heart wants Buffalo…but the head says Ravens. Baltimore came out flat last week and found themselves in a quick 10-0 hole. What happened next? They outscored Tennessee 20-3. Lamar is seeing the field well and we’re not so sure anyone can stop him. This team might be on it’s way to the Super Bowl, so now might be a good time to sprinkle some pizza money on a futures bet. A team peaking at the right time is the scariest thing in sports. On the flip side, Buffalo is lucky to still be alive. Old man Phil was carving up their defense, and the Colts had a very real chance to advance, despite the 1H debacle, a missed GF, and some poor coaching decisions. Buffalo cover your ears, because the Degen is backing the dog. The forecast says wind and snow, but that doesn’t bother us – we expect some fireworks in this game. Leaning over and JK Dobbins rushing prop as well.
The Pick – Ravens +2.5
The skunk at the garden party - Browns @ Chiefs -10 Total 57
Holy fuck that’s a high total. Know what it means? Chiefs are scoring 40. The Browns just won their Super Bowl, and their defense is weak. We do love Chubba Dub Dub, but a strong running game doesn’t help if you’re playing from behind. This situation is similar to Clemson vs Ohio State. Dabo ranked the Buckeyes #11 and then they got their ass kicked. Steelers said all week they were happy to be playing the Browns, and Cleveland made em eat their words like a Jameis W. Finger lickin good! Baker and the boy aren’t hanging with the Cheifs. Kansas City hasn’t covered a spread since Week 8. Yes - you read that correctly. November 1st against the God Damn Jets was the last time KC covered, and now in the Divisional Round they are laying 10?!?! Vegas knows - a lot of people will see this juicy double digit line, and take the bait. Especially with dogs covering 4 of 6 in Wild Card round. We like KC every which way. 1Q, 1H, TT over…you name it, we will bet it. Take the over in the highest total of the weekend too. Don’t even look at the weather – doesn’t matter. The number tells the story.
The Pick – Chiefs -10 and Over 57
Choose your own adventure - Bucs @ Saints -3.5
Greg and I differ here, so we are splitting up like Kim and Kanye for this game.
Brandons Take: Look, I get the narrative you’re hearing all week is that Brady hasn’t lost to the same team three times in one season. I’m fully aware the Bucs are out for double revenge and that might be too obvious. I DON’T GIVE A FUCK. I am sick and tired of Brees’ checkdown noodle arm bullshit. What in the world were the Bears doing on defense last weekend? I’ve never seen so many obvious 2 yard passes result in 10+ yard gains. Sickening. I should probably take the points here, but F that. Give me the Bucs ML and not only that, I want every damn Saints players under. Brees, Kamara, Thomas – all of em! The Saints are done marching. Time to put the damn dog down already. Goodnight, Drew. You’ve had a great career. Save your ribs and go play with your kids. Tompa Bay prevails. The Sea Shanties couldn’t have gone viral at a more perfect time because it’s a pirates life for me!
The Pick(Brandon) – Bucs ML
Greg’s Take: The only way to beat Brady is to get pressure. In their two regular season match-up’s the Saints totaled six sacks and five picks on Brady, on the other side Tampa sacked Brees twice and forced exactly zero turnovers. Now look, I get that a lot has changed over the course of the season and Tampa’s offense has looked dominant as of late. But the defense just made Taylor Heinicke look like a Pro-bowler. Brees and the Saints didn’t have to do much to best the Bears, but if you watched that game he made some great throws that went more than the typical 5 yards. Bucs have been hot down the stretch and there is too much sex appeal with them getting a FG. Saints Win, Saints cover.
The Pick (Greg) - Saints - 3
Overall: 75-56