NFL Week 1 & College Football Week 2
It Begins
A journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step
1 game down. 271 to go. Cherish them all, because it goes quick.
Summer is over and the Fall begins. Kidding, it’s still 90 degrees in NYC, but football is here and that’s all that really matters. From now till February we are blessed with NFL action. It’s tough to not run into this Sunday guns blazing with 34 straight bets and 6 parlays, but we prefer to ease into it. The season is a long and winding road with many ups and downs. Last year we went 8-1 in Week 1. Yay! But also, who gives a fuck. What have you done for me lately? We are the last guys who are here to toot our own horns because we can definitely remember opening weekends where we got absolutely massacred (see last week in college football). So let’s begin the dance with five picks for the NFL and another handful for college.
This is year 3 of The Degenerate. So far we have finished our first two years at plus money, and the journey to #3 starts today! (Technically last week, and we are off to a rough start).
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Current Record YTD:
NFL: 0-0-0 (0 Units)
CFB: 2-7 (-5.81 Units)
NFL WEEK 1
Dolphins at Chargers +3 Total (Degen’s Best Bet)
Some of the best wagers are the ones we don’t make. They are also some of the ones we “cash out”. Last season, I thought I saw a Super Bowl look with the Miami Dolphins. When Tua is healthy, the Dolphins win games. When he’s not healthy, they lose. Miami started the season 3-0, then Tua got hurt and they lost their next 3. Tua comes back and they won their next 4. The Dolphins were sitting at 7-3 entering the BYE week, come out of it beating the Texans, and then they have a west coast road trip to play at San Fran and LAC. Once I saw the line in SF, I got an awful feeling and cashed out. The Dolphins went on to lose both games. They also did not win the Super Bowl.
Last years game against the Chargers was weird. Tua had arguably the worst performance of his career going 10/28 for 145 yards. That was the lowest amount of yards he had all season. The Chargers only won that game by 6 points. Personally, I don’t necessarily think the Dolphins were the worse team - I think it was a very bad spot. Now the rematch occurs in Week 1, and I smell…revenge.
No doubt about it, the Chargers are a good team. Say what you want about Brandon Staley - this offense is going to be SCARY under new coordinator Kellen Moore. Herbert also has a new weapon in Quentin Johnston, the WR they drafted out of TCU. But I feel more confident backing a Dolphins offense in the second year of a Mike McDaniel system with plenty of time to prepare. I’m also excited to see this new Dolphins defense under Vic Fangio.
Say it with me: “when Tua is healthy, the Dolphins win games.”
The Pick: Dolphins +3
Packers at Bears -1.5 Total (Dino’s Best Bet)
Good bye and good riddance Aaron Rodgers. No one, and we mean no one is more excited about his departure from Green Bay than the Chicago Bears and their fans.
Green Bay goes to their 3rd quarterback since 1992 in Jordan Love. The former 1st rounder had three very awkward years to learn from Rodgers before getting the reins. If you read our Pre-Season Futures write-up you know we are in love with the Pack this year. I like Jordan Love, but my reason for the Packers in not because on him. It has way more to do with the surrounding elements. Talented at RB/WR, strong O-line, and stellar defense.
The Bears are getting a decent amount of hype, but I’m not buying it. Despite the down year in Green Bay in 2022, the Packers still won and covered both games against the Bears. You have a defensive minded coach in Chicago leading a run-first type QB, and I don’t think its a winning combination.
We’ve said it 1,000 times, but strange things happen at Solider Field. What could be more fitting than in a year when the Bears are finally favored over the Packers, a year when everyone is hot on Chicago and cold on Green Bay… for the “I Own You” trend to continue, despite high hopes?
The Pick: Green Bay +1.5
Rams at Seahawks +5.5 Total 45.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
The Seahawks were one of the biggest surprises last year. The Rams were one of the biggest disappointments. Based on those two statements it might shock you to know the Rams covered both games last year in this divisional matchup. It will make your jaw drop when you remember they did it with John Wolford and Baker Mayfield.
The Rams injury woes from 2022 seem to be rolling into 2023 and if everyone wasn’t off them in Week 1 before this news they certainly are now.
There’s a bit of a narrative around underdogs in Week 1 and, there’s even more of one around divisional underdogs. But what we really like about this one is that we haven’t seen anyone wanting to invest in the Rams in this spot, and thats where Steak feasts.
The Pick: Rams +5.5
Titans at Saints -3 Total 41.5
As bad as things went for the Titans last year, they still found themselves precisely 2 minutes and 57 seconds away from winning the division and going to the Playoffs. That’s when Josh Dobbs fumbled and the Jags ran it in for a TD and the win.
Titans Head Coach Mike Vrable is just one of those coaches who gets more out of his guys. We know they have a bad roster. We know they couldn’t score in the 2H last year, much less the 4th Q. But we believe in Vrable.
The Saints are everyones sneaky pick to make some noise in the NFC, and we don’t necessarily disagree. We just don’t think Derek Carr is going to come in and make an immediate splash with HC Dennis Allen leading the way.
The Pick: Titans +3
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Panthers at Falcons Under 39.5
The Panthers defense is better than most people realize. The Falcons defense was atrocious last year, but they added a lot of pieces and should be improved. Expectations are relatively low for both teams, but the NFC South is such a bad division that either team could make a run for it and no one would be surprised.
You’ve got young QB’s and coaches who are going to be feeling each other out, not trying to make a mistake. We think it leads to a lack of big plays and a lot of tick, tick, tick, tickkkkk.
Unfortunately, due to this line dropping 3 whole points, we cannot give it as an official pick. With more followers comes more scrutiny, and we know the CLV police are on our ass more than ever before. But in all seriousness - it’s past a key number, and not a good idea to bet an under at 39.5 when it opened 42.5. Personally, we will be buying a few points, but not going to advise laying that juice. Do whatever you want. This will be played and is an under we strongly like, but not an official pick.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
It was prefaced last week, but week 1 is not where we tend to find success. Impossible to know what these teams are going to look like given there’s so much turnover in College Football, but we still (regrettably) pressed some buttons. Now there are no more excuses - let’s get after it.
Utah at Baylor +7.5
Typically you’d feel comfortable taking a home dog getting a touchdown. Not so much when it’s after losing outright to Texas St, without their starting QB, and against Kyle Wittingham. It’s important not to overreact in week 1 of the College Football season.
Baylors 42-31 loss last week was embarrassing, and I don’t really believe in “look ahead” spots in week 1…but perhaps I can make an exception. The Bears first string QB Blake Shapen has been ruled out, and it sounds like Cam Rising will miss another start as well. Get ready for a battle of the backups!
We certainly give the coaching nod to Utah, but I must say despite the win against UF last weekend, I’m not sure I really trust Utahs offense to pull away in this game. The Utes beat Florida 24-11 last week. They scored the one of their three touchdowns on the first play of their first possession, and another after a Mertz interception was thrown inside Gator territory. After a hot start, the offense cooled, and only produced 270 yards while going 3/13 on third down. The defense also allowed Mertz to throw for over 300 passing yards. It doesn’t feel good, but the number has to be played on a home dog that we don’t feel will be very trendy.
The Pick: Baylor +7.5 (-110)
Purdue +3 at Virginia Tech
You probably wouldn’t think much of Virginia Techs win against Old Dominion last weekend, but it was actually a revenge spot after ODU upset them in 2022. The Hokies got up for that game and got the job done. Purdue on the other hand had Fresno St in town and lost in a shootout 39-35. Dare I say I was more impressed with Purdues loss than Virginia Tech’s win. The Boilermakers were up on a very good Fresno St team 35-32 and lost with a minute left. Meanwhile it took 3 quarters for the Hokies to put away and Old Dominion team that didn’t even pass for 100 yards.
The Pick: Purdue +3 (-110)
Texas St at UTSA -13.5
This pick is a pure line read. UTSA is known for having a high powered offense and putting up points. Well, they didn’t do much of that last weekend in a 17-14 loss at Houston. Meanwhile Texas St upset Baylor 42-31. Talk about being at your highest of highs. Now they go on the road in back to back weeks against a UTSA team in their home opener. This line opened 10 and has been bet up to 13.5 where we jumped in before it gets to two touchdowns (L CLV). The total is 66.5 juiced to the over as well. Love the over and love the favorite to bounce back here.
The Pick: UTSA -13.5 (-115)
Auburn at Cal +6.5
Both of these teams just scored 50+ points and blew out their opponent. Now they meet up on the west coast, a place where you don’t often find SEC teams. My first lean in this game was the under despite it dropping 3 points and being late to the party (I never get CLV). But Steak likes the home dog here. Probably because it’s a little more contrarian with the fact that Cal is starting their backup QB. The official newsletter pick will be Cal with the points, but I’m personally going to be playing both. Don’t often take a side and total in same game, but I really like the spot. Cals defense held North Texas to just 225 yards of offense. I think Auburn and new coach Hugh Freeze are in for a surprise after beating up on UMass last weekend.
The Pick: Cal +6.5
Texas at Alabama -7 Total 53.5
We are not high on Texas this year, and we aren’t really high on the Alabama offense. Given that, it feels like we are almost obligated to bet this under. But if you think about it for football reasons, it’s a play that makes sense.
Quinn Ewers is not a guy who thrives on making big plays down the field. Last season he was just 39% on throws over 25 yards. Texas put up 37 points on Rice, but that actually had more to do with the Longhorn defense dominating and giving the O good field position. The Texas D line manhandled Rice and looked terrifying. Now they go up against Jalen Milroe who we still think it’s more of a RB playing QB. New OC Tommy Rees will face his first test here, and we don’t think he passes. Not at all saying Alabama loses this game, but we think it’s a defensive battle.
The Pick: Under 53.5 (-105)
OK St at Arizona St +3.5 Total 55.5
This is my favorite play of the weekend and I’m on it for 2 units. I call this the “Nobody opened up the playbook in week 1 because they played nobodies and now they’re going to open the playbook” game of the year… it’s a working title.
We are shorting Oklahoma St stock (on the win total under) as this is a spot we really like the home dog too, similar to Auburn/Cal. Neither team scored more than 28 points last weekend against opponents Southern Utah and Central Arkansas. Fireworks incoming? We think so.
The Pick: Over 55.5 (-115)
Nebraska at Colorado -2.5 Total 58.5
We want absolutely nothing to do with a side in this game. Time will tell if Colorado is actually good or not. But we faded them last weekend and we don’t intend on burning anymore units finding out. However, we can’t ignore the fact that TCU might actually be a really bad team. Not saying Nebraska will be good, but the defense was very impressive in week 1 on the road in Minnesota, a game that the Huskers should’ve won (a tale as old as time). We think Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs offense come down to reality a bit against a competent defense, and on the other side of the ball certainly don’t see the Huskers lighting up the scoreboard against anyone.
The Pick: Under 58.5
RECAP:
NFL
Dolphins +3 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Packers +1.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Rams +5.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Titans +3
CFB
Baylor +7.5
UTSA -13.5
Purdue +3
Cal +6.5
Texas/Alabama UNDER 53.5
OK St/Arizona St OVER 55.5
Nebraska/Colorado UNDER 58.5