Super Wild Card
The Best Football Weekend of the Year
It sure was a struggle to the finish line in the NFL Season for the Degenerate. We had many ups this past year, but the final 3-4 weeks were an absolute grind. Thankfully a late lean had us liking Russ’s potential last game as a Seahawk, as we added Seattle to the card. Helped the overall record a bit.
We’ve had success in the playoffs in previous years, specifically in the Wild Card round. But this year seems to be uncharacteristically challenging. For whatever reason, the market is tougher to read. We’ve already seen some huge line movement early in the week, including a Tampa meteorologist running to the counter hammering the under with some weather updates (moved from 49 to 45.5). As one of our favorite gambling follows points out below - the dogs like to bark in these WC games. Let’s do our best to stay balanced rather than just blindly follow the trend.
NFL Wildcard Weekend
Current Record: 86-66-2 YTD
Flip Flop Game of the Week - Raiders @ Bengals -5.5 Total 49
As excited as we are for the playoffs, it pains us to admit that the very first game has us perplexed. Truly stumped on how to approach this one. Pull up a chair and let’s think through all the various angles. Bear with us, this one is a bit long.
First, let’s focus on the Bengals, who just won their division by beating arguably the best team in the AFC (Chiefs) which required a 14 point comeback. Joe Burrow is so damn swagalicious. The Bengals were able to rest their starters last week, meanwhile the Raiders played extra football in an overtime game on Sunday night. The Bengals have about as good of a rest advantage as any non 1 seed playoff team can have. Vegas played the latest game of week 18, and now the earliest game of the playoffs. Also, this line opened at -6.5, and at first glance that seems like A LOT of respect for Cinci. They also beat Vegas on the road back in November 32-13. There’s plenty of reasons to take the Bengals here. So as you should know by now, that means we don’t want to bet the Bengals.
Now let’s take a look at the Raiders. For starters, this is the first time an interim coach has made the playoffs. Pretty cool to see them end the year winning 4 straight and making it to the postseason given all the adversity they’ve faced this year. Derek Carr isn’t someone your kids are going to grow up aspiring to be as a football player, but he seems like a pretty damn good dude. They were sitting at 6-7 in Cleveland, a 3rd and 3 away from the Browns icing the game and the Raiders season being over. Vegas is playing with house money, low expectations, and the role of an underdog. That’s a scary trio to bet against. We always say it’s hard to beat the same team twice. Revenge can be a public play when it’s clearly obvious, but we don’t think that’s the case here. Vegas is clearly the contrarian pick, as Cinci is getting 62% of the bets, but the line moved down to -5.5. Some respected money clearly came in early on Vegas with the points at the open.
So there you have it. Are you going public out of the gate with Burrow and the home team, or pouring one out for John Madden and riding the Raiders? After all that…we still can’t decide. But we aren’t leaving you hanging without a pick! Do you hear that…? Sounds like a storm is coming…
ahhhhhhahhhhahhhh….AHHHHHAHHHHAHHHHH UNDER! That’s right – we are fading the public, but with the total. Love the rest vs rust here, and we think that favors the Raiders. Which means the Bengals offense should sputter a bit. First game of the weekend, Bengal’s offense has been hot, Bengal’s home games always high scoring…all reasons the public will be gobbling up the over. Not us!
The Pick: Under 48.5
Third Times a Charm - Patriots @ Bills -4 Total 44
We don’t know how playoff football gets any better than a division rivalry in single digit temperature. Cannot express how excited we are to crank up the heat and watch from the comfort of our sofa as Josh Allen proceeds to break every finger of poor Stefon Diggs. Make sure you say a prayer for Pinto Ron and Bills Mafia. The ketchup and mustard shower could lead to hyperthermia and the folding tables will be extra crisp come Saturday night.
Buffalo vs. New England is giving us Georgia Bama vibes, and we all know how that one went. At the beginning of the season we talked about Buffalo needing to figure out the run come Playoff time in order to make a run, and guess what… it would appear they are. In the last 5 weeks, Singletary has had 3 of his best performances of the season, and Allen has had 4. Figuring it out just in time.
The Patriots had their red hot run winning 7 in a row, but since their Week 14 BYE they lost 3 of 4 (only win was Jags). We aren’t quite ready to lay the -4 though. The Bills have had their ups and downs this year - we just can’t seem ‘em with an early exit.
The Pick: Bills ML (Bookie pick of the week)
Grab Your Pancho - Eagles @ Buccaneers -8.5 Total 49
The Bucs lost Antonio Brown, but they gained a pissed off Tom Brady. At 44 years old, Tom just had one of the best seasons of his career. Fucking wild. Every time I see him throw for 400 yards, I remind myself to eat more vegetables.
The Bucs find themselves as the biggest favorite of the weekend. In the age of information, most gamblers will see the stat that we shared about dogs statistically doing well, and it may lead to a decent amount of people blindly betting the big dog here. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. The majority of the action is with Tampa, and you could say that’s justified. Despite being down some star receivers, their defense is returning some key contributors, including Lavontae David. He and Devin White are quite possibly the best linebacking duo in the league, which anchors an elite front 7.
The Eagles ended the year about as good as Philly fans could’ve hoped. Sirianni seemed like a doofus and Vegas gave them a 7.5 win total. They started the season 2-5 with their only two wins being Atlanta and Carolina. But the birds turned it around - Philly won 6 of their final 8 games, and they rested pretty much everyone in week 18 against the Cowboys. But if you dig deeper, it’s not so impressive. They haven’t played a playoff team since week 7. That’s before Halloween! The last 6 weeks of the season their opponents were all NFC East teams + the Jets. What we do have to give Philly for is having an identity – which is running the damn ball. We hinted at this in our intro, but word on the street is there seems to be some pretty shitty weather in Tampa on gameday. Rain and 20 mph winds. Obviously, this would favor a running team. Now, does this information flip the script and attract more betting attention to the Eagles? Hard to say as we write this on Thursday night. The total went down from 49 to 45.5, but the spread is still steady at 8.5. This will be something to monitor.
Our advice on this game would be fade your sphere. If the majority of people you know are taking the Bucs, then go Philly. And vice versa. We still have not seen many people believe in the birds, and for that reason alone we are riding with them.
The Pick: Eagles +8.5
This is Art - 49ers @ Cowboys -3 Total 51
You can’t find a more aesthetically pleasing matchup than this. It’s as classic as it gets, and so is our take. Tale as old as time - Heart vs. Brain. Everything about this one should have you leaning towards the 49ers. Lets not forget they started the season 2-4, before going on a 7-3 run to end it. Last week Jimmy G and the Niners put together a massive 88 yard TD scoring drive in just over a minute to keep their season alive. Grit!
The Cowboys have been an OK story this year. Dak finds himself as the favorite to win comeback player of the year award, but since their early BYE week the Boys are just 1-3 against playoff teams (lone win last week versus Eagles backups). For us, this one comes down to two things:
Dallas had the best ATS record in the NFL (13-4)
SF is the trendiest dog of the weekend
Despite Cowboys bettors getting rewarded for it all season, they’re abandoning them the first round?!? Not on our watch. This line is begging you to take SF with the FG, but we’re not falling for it. All we see when we close our eyes is Fat Mike McCarthy back in Green Bay for the NFC Championship.
The Pick: Cowboys -3 (Greg’s Best Bet)
One Last Ride - Steelers @ Chiefs -12.5 Total 46
We faded the Steelers twice in the last two weeks of the NFL season, and we got burned both times. Rather be caught dead than doing it a third time. Big Ben just won’t die. When watching him still conduct game winning drives at age 39, we are then reminded that maybe we don’t need to eat more vegetables (take that, Tom!)
There’s no sense getting too deep in this one. Is this too many points to give the Steelers? Probably not. The Chiefs handled them easily just a few weeks ago 36-10. But again, we always say it’s tough to beat the same team twice. Well it’s even harder to beat the shit out of the same team twice. That’s really our only hope here - because we just can’t be on the wrong side of Ben again. We are trusting in TJ Watt and this Steelers defense, which gets Joe Haden back for the rematch.
It’s sad that instead of seeing Justin Herbert or Lammar Jackson in the playoffs, we get Fat Ben who’s averaging the lowest amount of yards per pass out of any QB in this playoffs (by almost a full yard). There’s no better coach you want to bet on as an underdog than Tomlin, and we’ll end it on that note (gulp).
The Pick: Steelers +12.5
Last Leg of the Marathon - Cardinals @ Rams -4 Total 49.5
The road dog won outright in each of the match-ups this season, but we don’t see this one going the way of the past. Look…we could sit here all day and pick these teams apart, as both have shown their share of flaws lately. One thing is for damn sure - we don’t expect either of these teams to make much of a playoff run.
Trivia: who lead the NFL in INT’s this year? Trevor Lawrence? Yes, but also…Matt Stafford! He came on strong throwing 7 picks in his last 3 games. Everyone should know by now that the Cardinals are a much better road team, which is why they’re getting slightly more action from the public than LA. But we still don’t feel comfortable backing them in Kliff’s first playoff appearance. After starting 7-0 they came back back to reality, then fell off a cliff losing 4 of 5 down the stretch. This matchup of pretty boy coaches has us favoring McVay, but were gonna buy it down a bit, just in case.
The Pick: Rams -3 (buy 1 pt - Brandon’s Best Bet)