Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Coming off a quality Week 11 and breaking even on Thanksgiving despite being very wrong about The Washington Football Team. Thanks to Alex Smith for at least throwing a pick on the near perfect day for them. Lots of underdogs this week! Perhaps even…too many. Traditionally Thanksgiving favors the public, but thats not our style so let’s look to where they miss.
Mike MotherFucking Glennon - Browns @ Jaguars +7
This might be the last opportunity in your lifetime to bet on a team led by Mike Glennon. Not the kind of awe inspiring, run through a brick wall, motivational speech you are looking for, but it’s what you’re getting. The Jags are bad. Third string qb, nine losses in a row, all eyes on Trevor Lawrence bad. Why on earth are they only getting a touchdown against the playoff bound Browns? Close your eyes and all you can see is Chubb and Hunt both having hundred yard games in a Cleveland route, but something is making our spidey sense tingle, and ride with the Jags when no one else will.
The pick - Jags +7.5 (buy the hook)
Belichick finds a way - Cardinals @ Patriots +2
The clock is running out on Cam Newton’s career. Patriots are facing an uphill climb towards a playoff spot and the 2015 NFL MVP is on a one year deal that hasn’t been the brightest. Enter Kyler Murray and his juggernaut of an offense. This is the third consecutive game for the Pats against a duel threat QB (beating Lamar Jackson, and losing to Dwat). Leaning towards the home field, cardboard cutout fans to give the edge on Sunday. The spread smells just a bit too fishy and we think Vegas is trying to lure everyone onto the Cards.
The pick - Patriots +2
Primetime rebound - Chiefs @ Bucs +3.5
Tom Brady and the Bucs are having an impressive season, but if you only watched their Primetime games you would never know it. Despite going 0-3 at the 8pm slot Tampa has been damn near perfect during Sunday day games. Chiefs are the clear Super Bowl favorites, coming off another incredible performance by Mahomes. They look unbeatable when not playing the Raiders. Hell there isn’t a team in the NFL most would even put them within a touchdown of. But Tampa has the defense to slow them down juussssttt enough to pull off the cover and maybe even a big home win.
The Pick - Buccaneers +3.5 (and a splash of Bucs ML +175)
Mitchy Mitch - Bears @ Packers -9.5
Do not bet the Bears ML here. REPEAT: DO NOT! We’ve seen Chicago get out to one too many leads for 58 minutes over the Packers only to watch Aaron surge back and pull off the win. Betting on the Bears is not fun - you’re in for a lot of 3-and-outs, you’re going to NEED a huge defensive showing, you’re going to think it’s all locked up, and you are probably going to see it come slowly come crashing down. Just prepare for the inevitable. Mitch isn’t the hero we need, but we think he’s got enough juice in the tank (along with a phenomenal defense) to get it done on Sunday night.
The Pick - Bears +9.5
Player Props:
Nyheim Hines total yards OVER.
Grab a Panthers WR, preferably Robby Anderson.
Quick Hitters:
Raiders @ Falcons +3 - Just when everyone has officially written on the dirty birds is when they rear their heads and pull off an impressive win. Falcons +3.5 is the sharpest play of the day.
Saints @ Broncos +14.5 (and counting) No idea how it happens, but the Broncos are pissed off. No QB, no problem. Broncos +14.5
AHHHHHHHAAHHAHHHHH UNDA - Chargers @ Bills U52.5
Overall - 32-27