Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Last week was fucking fun! Unfortunately, not as much stands out to us in week 7. With that said, there are certainly a few strange lines out of Vegas that are making our mouths water. Pair that with some teams approaching desperation mode and a side of bye week trends…well then we’ve got ourselves a full plate. Let’s eat!
Fresh Fish - Packers @ Texans +3.5
The Texans were the lone blemish (and stupid Andy Dalton) from our card last week. Foolish decision to go for two at the end, and Vrabel ran circles around old man Romeo. So why would be back them again? We choose PAIN! It’s not easy but this is the right play. Packers should be a touchdown favorite, which tells us Vegas is baiting the hook to reel in public betters. No way Aaron Rodgers loses back to back games. No way the Texans cover after their season was all but ended last week. Right? Everyone will be betting on the Packers to bounce back. We’ll see…
The Pick - Texans +3.5
The Super Bowl hangover returns - 49ers @ Patriots -2.5
Niners looked fantastic last week as they manhandled the Rams for a massive divisional win. Cam Newton and the Patriots could not do a single thing right on offense against a mediocre Broncos team, as they were held to 12 points (9 of which came in the 4th Q). We aren’t buying that SF is back on track, and this is a season defining moment for the Pats. The one huge takeaway from last week is the struggling Patriots defense didn’t allow a TD. You can be damn sure that Bill knows every one of Jimmy G’s flaws and is chomping at the bit to exploit them. Throw some pizza money on a defensive score in this one and ride the Pats as they get back to .500
The Pick - Patriots ML
The public play that hits - Seahawks @ Cardinals +3.5
Last week our public play was the Lions, and this week we are on the Seahawks. In the last 10 seasons Pete Carroll is 7-3 ATS after a Bye. This is big divisional game, Cardinals are riding high after embarrassing the Cowboys in prime-time, but the Seahawks look to get healthy on defense and the Russ MVP World Tour continues.
The Pick - Seahawks -2.5 (buy a point)
Gruden’s Revenge - Buccaneers @ Raiders + 3.5
Gruden is a psyco. He’s had this game circled on the calendar since the schedule was announced, and he got a bye week to prepare? Raiders +3.5 is a bit suspect considering how dominate Tampa looked last week, and 65% of the public would agree as they have already rushed onto Tampa early. If the Bucs D made Aaron Rodgers look bad, imagine what they could do to Derek Carr? But… they have been sneaky bad on the road with ugly losses to the Saint and Bears, with their only win against a Jeff Driskle lead Broncos team. The Raiders are quietly putting together a nice season going 3-2 in a brutal schedule for their first five games. Pending their recent Covid outbreak, back the Raiders with the points in a defensive Sunday Night* showdown.
The Pick - Raiders +3.5
*Flexed to a day game
A big number suggests the blowout - Jaguars @ Chargers -7.5
We are a bit hesitant on this one, but what the hell - let’s swing! Chargers have lost four straight and yet they come in as Touchdown favorites. Vegas sees the writing on the wall and the Minshew ship continues to sink.
The Pick - Chargers -7.5
Survivor Scare - Chiefs @ Broncos +9.5
The Super Bowl Champs can’t possibly struggle with the lowly Broncos, can they? Tread lightly, as strange things happen in high altitude, especially when there’s snow on the horizon. Chiefs are on a short week, Drew Lock is healthy, and the Broncos are riding high after a huge win in New England.
Player prop to watch for - Antonio Gibson versus the historically bad Cowboys D
Quick Hitters:
Bills @ Jets +13 - Bills are on a two game losing streak. Adam Gase and the Jets are the perfect cure. We like Buffalo here.
AHHHHHHHHAHAHHHHAHHHHH UNDA - Lions @ Falcons 55
Overall: 20-9
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