Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
What a kick in the dick Week 7 was. The public absolutely crushed – good for them! We had a nice run but crashed hard. All we hit were the Chargers (Jags are done – continue to fade), Gibson as a player prop, and a nice Under. The good thing to come out of this is we can say with certainty the Texans will no longer be one of our picks. Absolutely insane that Vegas had the Packers -3.5 there. A big Vegas sportsbook at one point had 96% of the tickets on Pack. Too easy. Okay, onto the next – week 8 has some gems, lets go!
A bad investment gets worse - Colts @ Lions +2.5
This is Brandon’s lock of the week. HATE Matt Patricia, but love love LOVE the Lions here. The Colts are big fat phonies and expect the Lions to ride last weeks comeback win into another dub against the Colts. Old man Rivers is averaging one TD and one pick through his first six games this year and his $25M contract is looking atrocious. Colts are a very unimpressive 4-2 when you look at their schedule. Only good win was against the Bears and that’s debatable. The Lions are better than people give them credit for. Detroit wins this one by two scores.
The Pick – Lions +2.5
Back Baker against a bad team - Raiders @ Browns -3
Most would probably agree that the 3-3 Raiders are a better team than the 5-2 Browns. Especially now that OBJ is out for the season, I would also assume most are going to pound the Raiders with the points here. Why? The Raiders had the toughest schedule to start the season, and it’s impressive that they are 3-3. But with an ass kicking from the Bucs after the bye week, we can’t see this team getting up for a trip to Cleveland. The Browns and Baker show up against average teams and we think they take care of business here. Oakland is only a few losses away from the whispers of a QB change.
The Pick – Browns -3
Belichick’s last stand - Patriots @ Bills -4
The theme from most Patriots fans is their season is over and Cam stinks. We don’t necessarily disagree, but again, this is the time to bet on a team. When everyone, including their fan base, is ready to give up. This is a huge game for Buffalo to take control of the division. Love Belichick playing the sleeper role. Give us the Pats with the points and fuck it, sprinkle a bit on them ML too.
The Pick – Patriots +4 and ML +170
The rookie regression - Chargers @ Broncos +3
Every week Justin Herbert is looking more and more like the real deal. 10 TD’s and one pick in his last 3 games?! But this isn’t the PAC 12 anymore, NFL defenses adapt quickly and Herb is going to take a step back on his path to OROY. Broncos were just embarrassed, and we love em with a chip on their shoulder. Take ‘em with the points at home in a divisional game.
The Pick: Broncos +3
Fade the trendy dog - Steelers @ Raves -4
We saved the best for last. Here is your sharpest play of the weekend. POUND the Ravens. This line opened -6 and 70% of the bets poured onto Pittsburgh with the points. That’s sooo many points for the NFL’s last undefeated team. Steelers are a very legit contender in the AFC, but expect the Ravens to be in control from start to finish here. Don’t like giving 4 though, so we suggest laying the wood on Ravens ML.
The Pick – Ravens ML -195
Survivor scare of the week: Vikings @ Packers -7
The Vikings are a pile of hot steamy poo, but don’t count them out on the road in Green Bay. Kirk likes to make it tough on them in Lambeau. The Packers seem like a stone cold lock…and that’s our concern.
Player Props:
Kareem Hunt rushing yards OVER; Lamar Jackson passing yards OVER; and if you’re feeling the Pats pick ride Cam rushing and passing yards OVER.
Quick Hitters:
Jets +21.5 (buy two points)
Niners +3
AHHHHHHHAHHAHHHHHH UNDA!
Steelers Ravens U46.5
Overall: 22-14