Part 3 of 4. You know the drill by now. We will post links to previous division write ups at the end.
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NFC North
Opponents: NFC North (6 games); NFC West (4 games); AFC North (4 games)
Chicago Bears - Super Bowl +4500 - Total Wins 7.5 (-130)
Heads will roll
Additional opponents: @Raiders, Giants, @Buccaneers
Before we examine the upcoming season - let's take a moment and remember the good times of the Mitch Trubinsky era:
That was fun! Onto yet another QB “controversy” in Chicago. It’s clearly a matter of if, not when, for Fields to take the reins. Let’s take a quick glance at the Vegas odds:
Fields Week 1-3: +400
Fields Week 4-6: Even
Fields Week 7-9: +250
We should expect to see Dalton in week 1, and rightfully so. There’s no reason to send the 1st round draft pick and *fingers crossed* future of the franchise into the actual lion’s den @ LA against arguably the NFL’s best defense. The switch will likely come Week 4 at home against the Lions. Makes perfect sense on paper, and it is absolutely the right move. The problem would occur the following week, after his likely first NFL victory, Justin Fields and Co. head west to play the Raiders. Vegas is literally undefeated against 22 years olds with a big ego. Their next five opponents are Green Bay, Tampa, SF, Steelers and Ravens. Best case scenario they go 1-4. This schedule is just too tough and Fields is too young to take anything but the under here. If you need more reasons to tail us, Matt Nagy has inexplicably taken over at play-calling again, even when their offense performed significantly better once he turned things over to OC Bill Lazor last year. Looking at the defense - they lost CB Kyle Fuller in free agency who has started 64 of the last 64 games. We like the Bears under to hit, Nagy and GM Ryan Pace to get the axe, and Fields to develop with a new crew in 2022.
The Pick: Bears Under 7.5 (Even)
Detroit Lions - Super Bowl +12500 - Total Wins 5 (-110)
Brought a knife to a gunfight
Additional opponents: @Falcons, Eagles, @Broncos
The bright side for Lions fans going into 2021 is that you no longer have to look at a beached walrus with a pencil shoved in the side of its head flailing around on the sidelines calling plays. Not sure how we feel about new head coach Dan Campbell just yet, but we are leaning towards a lovable psycho. Everything about the Lions this year suggests they are mailing it in for a good draft pick, but it doesn't look like Campbell got the memo. First, let's focus on the positive. TJ Hockensen is pretty cool, and IF you had a bunch of gritty players who are hoping to reinvigorate their career, then Dan Campbell is the perfect coach… and that's pretty much the only thing going their way. The negatives? They play one of the toughest schedules. We think they are a lock to start 0-5. Worst WR core in NFL. Terrible defense. Their win total is 5 and Vegas projections have them as dogs of a touchdown or more in TEN games. Finally, should the lions find themselves with a late lead, nobody fumbles it like new OC Anthony Lynn (former Chargers HC). Don’t overthink this one, but don’t pound it either, just in case these non-turds buy into Dan Campbell and shock the world.
The Pick: Lions UNDER 5 (-120)
Minnesota Vikings - Super Bowl +2300 - Total Wins 9.5 (-120)
Pound the Purple
Additional opponents: @Chargers, Cowboys, @Panthers
The Vikings certainly regressed from 2019 to 2020, but it’s not as bad as you might think. After starting 1-5 last year, they were able to get their shit together after their bye week and make a modest playoff push by finishing 6-4. One of the biggest reasons for the ice cold start was the wildly inexperienced defense, specifically the secondary. They also suffered some injuries and covid opt outs at the dline and linebacker spots. With those players healing, and adding Patrick Peterson to the secondary, their defense should see a huge bounce back. Another reason for optimism is the emergence of Justin Jefferson. Last year the WR broke Randy Moss’ rookie records for yards and receptions. You better pay attention, because this guy is on his way to being a superstar. This is going to sound gross (like…really gross), but we are taking Kirk Cousins to win MVP. Mainly because we love long shots, but we could also see a Matt Ryan 2016 - mediocre to MVP situation this year, and Kirk fits the bill. Maybe… just maybe, the Kellen Mond draft pick lights a fire under his pasty ass. Their schedule is certainly difficult, but it's very reasonable to see this team finish closer to their 10 win 2019 performance than the 2020 7 win drop off.
The Pick: Vikings OVER 9.5 (-120); Vikings win NFC North +300; Kirk MVP +5500
Green Bay Packers - Super Bowl +900 - Total Wins 10 (-125)
This is the last last time (probably, but maybe not)
Additional opponents: @Saints, WFT, @Chiefs
The only thing more boring than watching Aaron Rodgers host jeopardy was listening to him piss and moan about where he might play this year. This guy just loves the drama and gets off to being worshiped. But, quite frankly, he should be. Rodgers has thrown 99 TD’s and 11 Int’s over the last three years. 11 picks. In 3 years. The next closest are Mahomes (23) and Wilson (25). No one makes fewer mistakes with the football. The Pack will face a tougher schedule this year playing 8 of the top 10 defenses, and they lost their center, but outside of that there isn't much negative to say. Where it gets tricky is with a win total of 10.5 and coming off back to back 13 win seasons…something just doesn't smell right. The Packers have lost 6 regular season games in the last two years, and early lines from Vegas have them as dogs in 7 games this year? No thank you, not taking that bait and certainly not looking to fade Rodgers and Devonte Adams in their “Last Dance” season. Alas, we will take a small piece of pie…just in case.
The Pick: Not touching win total; Packers Win Super Bowl +900
AFC North
Opponents: AFC North (6 games); AFC West (4 games); NFC North (4 games)
Browns - Super Bowl +1300 - Total Wins 10.5 (-130)
Not your grandfathers Browns
Additional opponents: Texans, @Patriots, Cardinals
What a turnaround in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and Andy Dufrane, who crawled through a river of shit and came out clean on the other side. What a hire 2020 Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski was for him and the Browns organization. Poor Baker had to suffer with Hue Jackson and Freddy Kitchens, but his reward has come. The Browns look to follow up their first winning season and playoff appearance since the leather helmet era. Well… not that long, but this franchise has arguably suffered more than any other over the last several decades. With one of the best offensive lines, easiest schedules, some key defensive draft picks and free agency signings (most notably John Johnson and Jadevon Clowney) this team is poised to follow up their breakthrough season. Notably, they dropped the ball a few times last year: losing to the Jets in Week 16 and almost losing to a Mason Rudolph led Steelers squad in Week 17 would have put them out of the playoffs, but ultimately they got the job done. Cleveland will certainly have some growing pains in the 2021 season. Of course, anytime OBJ is on the sideline drama is sure to ensue, and despite this team being solid across the board 10.5 wins is a bit to rich for us to jump on the Browns train this year.
The Pick: Not touching
Ravens - Super Bowl +1300 - Total Wins 10.5 (-150)
Buy the dip
Additional opponents: @Dolphins, Colts, Rams
There comes a time in every bettor's life, where you start to invest in coaches rather than players. This division has two coaches who might be the safest bets in the entire league with Harbaugh and Tomlin. After a 14-2 season and being the NFL’s unanimous MVP, Lamar and the Ravens had a somewhat expected regression last year. They finished winning 5 straight games, but all were against some of the worst teams in the league. Then it ended with a putrid offensive performance in a loss to Buffalo in the playoffs. This year - we are buying the dip on Baltimore. Sure, they lost their two keys pass rushers, but keep in mind they also let them walk. The Ravens know with their system they can plug and play at the edge position. The most important things to address were the offensive line and getting LJ a new weapon at receiver. Both were handled, as the Ravens drafted Rashad Bateman in the 1st round, and they traded/signed for two new key pieces on the O line. They also get Ronnie Stanley back. Vegas has the line set at 10.5 and that over is juiced at -150. There’s a reason this bet isn’t cheap. Keep your ear to the streets and you’ll notice nobody is talking about the Ravens. Be the smartest guy in the room! You probably didn’t know this, but LJ is 30-7 as a starter, and only 2 losses have been by more than 6 points. This is one of our favorite “sleeper” picks for the SB. Up your units and trust in the right Harbaugh.
The Pick: Ravens OVER 10.5; Ravens SB +1300
Steelers - Super Bowl +3500 - Total Wins 8.5 (-110)
All good things come to an end
Additional opponents: @Bills, Titans, Seahawks
The Steelers haven’t had a losing season in the last 17 years. Insane. This fanbase is so spoiled they don’t even know it. Pittsburgh somehow managed to go 8-8 in 2019 with Mason and Hodges swapping at QB. They’ve always got a well rounded squad that includes a stellar defense. Last year the Steelers started the season 11-0, but things took a turn to nasty town real quick once the schedule beefed up. Pittsburgh went 1-4 in their last 5 games (most embarrassing of which was a double digit loss to Ryan Finley and the Bengals), and lost at home in the Wild Card round to divisional foe Cleveland. Actually, they didn’t just lose...they got their asses kicked. Very uncharacteristic for this franchise, and we expect that to continue. Just look at the total Vegas has for them in a 17 game season. 8.5 games?! A team that has relied on a great defense, is returning almost every player from said defense, and they’re predicted to win around 8 games in a 17 game season??? If you’re a Steelers fan, that is NOT good. Ben is 39, but apparently he’s just now starting the TB12 method and eating his first vegetable. The real problem here is the offensive line. Ben isn’t mobile, and he sure as shit is no longer durable. The draft pick of Najee Harris was scrutinized, as most thought they should’ve went lineman in the 1st round. We disagree. Najee is the kind of athlete who can make up for a weak Oline...but he’s not their savior. This offense is going to struggle. The best news for this team going into 2021 is they fired their offensive coordinate and replaced him with Matt Canada. This should keep Pitt competitive, but we don’t see the wins coming this year. The Steelers are -200 to miss the playoffs and honestly, we think that’s a bargain. It’s a little too late for Big Ben to go from chicken parm to eggplant parm. This is the beginning of the end of the Steelers dynasty.
The Pick: Steelers UNDER 8.5 wins; Steelers to MISS the playoffs -200
Bengals - Super Bowl +8500 - Total Wins 6.5 (-125)
All WR and no Oline makes Joe a dull boy
Additional opponents: @Jets, Jags, 49ers
This is a pro Joe Burrow newsletter. In my (Brandon’s) opinion, he was the best college quarterback of all time. I know we have a lot of UF alumn (Greg) that read this, and I’m sure that’s going to strike a chord for the Tebow fanboys, but it’s the truth. Joe is not only talented, but the guy actually cares about winning. If it wasn’t for the fact that he’s an Ohio native, I would feel fucking awful for him being stuck in Cincinnati. However, I do think he will find some success with the Bengals. The question is: will it be with Zach Taylor as his head coach? Answer: NOPE. Zach is going into his third year and is currently sitting at +1200 to be the first coach fired. Look, it’s not his fault Joe got hurt last year. The offense has some weapons, no doubt about it, but their offensive line should’ve been the priority in the draft, rather than going with Jamar Chase at 6 overall. Nevertheless, there is reason for optimism since Burrow and Chase had chemistry at LSU. I’m sure Joe had some say in the pick, and he will be extra motivated to make sure it doesn’t look like a mistake. We like a shot at Chase to lead the NFL in receiving +2800. The Bengals over win total is juiced, which shows they are getting some respected money. For that reason, and since we love Burrow, we choose not to fade. But we can’t name a single player on this defense, and I doubt you could either. So for THAT reason, we choose not to tail either. Treat this team like asbestos and just leave it alone. If you don’t have the discipline and need action, then you know what to do.
The Pick: Taylor first coach fired +1200; Ja’Marr Chase lead NFL in receiving yards +2800