Full slate of College Football and less than one week till NFL Kickoff. It’s here. We did it. If you missed any of the write-ups and want to go back to review, we put some links to all of them (and College Futures) at the end. We’ll also post the picks to twitter in a quick read format.
AFC South
Opponents: AFC South (6 games); AFC East (4 games); NFC West (4 games)
Jaguars - Super Bowl +8500 - Win Total 6.5 (-120)
The Changing of the Shew
Additional opponents: Den, @Cin, Atl
The Gardner Minshew era has come to an end in Jacksonville. The Jags look to rebuild the franchise yet again under the remarkably talented and awkwardly feminine Trevor Lawrence. This is the third time in the last 10 years the Jags have used a Top 10 pick on the “future” of the franchise. The previous attempts with Blaine Gabbert (2011) and Blake Bortles (2014) failed relatively quickly. Clearly, Lawrence is a different caliber of player, but he isn’t exactly stepping into a good situation. The Jags lost 15 straight games following their Week 1 win over the Colts (the biggest survivor pool exodus of 2020). The worst we will say about Trevor is that he’s probably not worth the juice at OROY (+300) but this guy certainly has the talent to turn around a lowly yet deserving franchise in Jacksonville. But, it's going to take time to get this team out of the gutter and the revamped coaching staff doesn't offer much promise. Urban is a fun hire, but his brand new Percey Harvin toy (Travis Etienne) broke before he got it out of the box. Urban has looked like he’s a 5 game losing streak away from faking a heart attack on the sideline this preseason, and you can almost guarantee this team is losing 5 in a row following their BYE week. New OC Darrell Bevell has been extraordinarily blah as the former Lions OC. There are some positives this year - one of the worst secondaries added some serious quality in free agency, signing Shaquill Griffin and Rayshaw Jenkins, while picking up additional talent in the draft. The Jags certainly offer a lot of potential, and paired with one the easiest schedules, that 6.5 is tempting. But this coaching staff is too vanilla pudding and the talent of Lawrence is not developed enough to back. Tail this under and don't be surprised if they win week 1 only to lose 15 in a row back to back years.
The Pick: Under 6.5; Jags worst record (+1200)
Texans - Super Bowl +17500 - Season Win Total 4 (-120)
Tl;dr
Additional opponents: @Cle, Car, LAC
The human brain is incapable of processing more than 5 sentences about the Houston Texans in a single sitting so we will keep this short. Tyrod Taylor is a backup. This team has made such poor trades that 3rd rounder Davis Mills was their first pick in this years draft. This is one of the least talented teams across the board in a LONG time. They also have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL. However...if it seems too easy, it probably is. The last teams we saw with this bad of win total were the 2017 Jets and the 2019 Dolphins - both of which cashed in on their Over.
The Pick: Don’t Touch
Colts - Super Bowl +3100 - Win Total 9 (-110)
The Rise of the Third Reich
Additional opponents: @Bal, TB, LV
Frank Riech, that is (not a Nazi newletter!). Despite a few significant preseason injuries, we see a lot of promise in this team. Reich has been a literal QB whisperer. He enters his 4th year with his 4th different Quarterback, and he continues to get the most out of them. Reich and Carson Wentz are reunited and it offers a lot of potential. Although, Wentz is scheduled to miss the first handful of games, and this could be a VERY good thing. The Colts start the season against five teams with 10 wins or more from last year (Sea, LAR, @TEN, @MIA, @BAL). Murderers Row. So what if the feeble boned QB misses a couple early matchups against top defenses? It will pay dividends down the stretch. Get on the Colts Over and be prepared to eat some heavy shit out of the gate. Don’t be scared to throw out a future ticket on them to win the division after a slow start. Down the stretch their schedule does a 180 as they will face one of the easiest in the NFL. The defense returns a solid unit with some serious beef added to the D-line in the draft. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. are primed for big sophomore seasons. It’s certain to be a rocky road for the Colts this year, but we love ‘em to come out on top.
The Pick: Colts Over ; Colts win AFC South (preferably sometime in week 3-6 if available)
Titans - Super Bowl +2300 - 9.5 (-130)
Popcorn muscles
Additional opponents: NO, KC, @Pit
You know that famous saying “buy the rumor, sell the news”? Well, nothing fits that more perfectly than the Tennessee Titans. Since Tannehill came in for Mariota - the Titans have had one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Derrick Henry appears to be ol’ reliable as one of top producing running backs who somehow never gets hurt, and now the Titans added Julio Jones to pair with AJ Brown at WR. This, my friends, is what we call “news”. And what do we do with news? WE SELL! What you probably didn’t know is they had one of the worst defenses in the league last year. The Titans were only able to get 19 sacks. Sure, they’ve added Bud Dupree to the front 7, but he’s also coming off a torn ACL. Very rare for the Steelers to let an elite defender walk out of town. Most importantly, the Titans offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is now the HC down in Atlanta. This could be a big problem. Smith’s play-calling was top tier. He designed an offense perfectly suited for a QB like Tannehill, and knew when to step on opponents necks with Henry pounding the rock. If you’ve paid attention, you know that we put an emphasis on the coaching staff when it comes to our gambling picks. Couple that with the fact that we also try to avoid public plays.
The Pick: Titans Under 9.5
NFC West
Opponents: NFC West (6 games); AFC South (4 games); NFC North (4 games)
Cardinals - Super Bowl +3500 - Win Total 8.5 (-120)
Bird on a wire
Additional opponents: @Cle, Car, @Dal
This is a very tough one for us to peg. A lot of fireworks on offense with two of the biggest playmakers in the NFL (Kyler and DHop). They added as good of a Center as you can ever hope to find in Rodney Hudson (Brava, Gruden. Brava). Rondale Moore will sparkle, and the defense will significantly boost their pass rush with the return of Chandler Jones and the signing of J.J. Watt. However…last year this team showed just how much of an impact Kyler’s mobility has on a game when they went 2-5 following his shoulder injury in Seattle. Durability could be a serious issue for Kyler, especially in a division where he will line up multiple times across Aaron Darnold and Nick Bosa. We don’t have a strong feeling on this team either way, but gun to our head, Kyler is getting a bit too trendy. Pair that with a difficult schedule and the best division, and it's enough to make us lean under. We just can’t in good conscience pass on an under at 8 on a team that is likely to go 1-5 in divisional games.
The Pick: Under 8.5
Rams - Super Bowl +1100 - Win Total 10.5 (-135)
NFL Tinder match made in Heaven
Additional opponents: TB, @NYG, @Bal
Say what you will about Jared Goff, but the dude didn’t deserve to be thrust out of LA and shipped to Detroit like a broken down Volkswagen. Karma immediately caught up to the Rams in the form of Cam Akers Achilles. Now, McVay is ready to take on the season with a real threat at the QB position. It’s worth noting that in his 12 year career the best coach Stafford was paired with, by far, was Jim Caldwell. McVay and Stafford are basically those good friends who have only dated complete pieces of shit losers for the last decade. Fresh off the rebound, they hooked up and the relationship offers a ton of promise. Vegas knows it too, as they are only expected to be underdogs twice this year (@SF, @Bal). Darrell Henderson isn’t anything special, but he and the rest of the backfield will be serviceable. As for the receivers: no one gets less respect than Bobby Woods, Cooper Kupp is going to be a receptions machine, and Tutu Atwell will be a big spark on special teams. The core of the defense returns but the loss of DC Brandon Staley and John Johnson/Troy Hill on defense will certainly be felt. The uncertainty on D makes us just apprehensive enough not to ride this over, but we are still big fans of the Rams in 2021.
The Pick: Rams to make Playoffs -180; Stafford lead league in passing yardage +800; Robert Woods lead the league in receiving yards +4500
Seahawks - Super Bowl +2000 - Win Total 9.5 (-160)
Let! Russ! Cook?
Additional opponents: @Pit, @Was, NO
It is truly remarkable that NOBODY is talking about the Seattle Seahawks. Unless we’re mistaken, this team has somehow become an afterthought. It’s almost like people forget Russell Wilson is still an elite quarterback and Pete Carroll is a top coach. What gives?! Our thoughts are it’s because the division is getting so damn good, and now has some new threats at the QB position. Stafford in LA, Kyler emerging as a real problem in AZ, and now the Niners trading up for Lance. Let’s just take a moment here and remind you that Russell Wilson has never won less than 9 games as a starting QB. To take it a step further, he’s won double digit games in 8/10 seasons. We are not abandoning the Russ Bus just yet. They’ve got something to be very excited about with the addition of Shane Waldron (former Rams passing coordinator) as their new OC. The only apprehension on not going all in here is that the Seahawks are expected to face the toughest scheduled in the NFL. But all things considered, Seattle could be a sleeping giant.
The Pick: Seahawks Over 9.5
49ers - Super Bowl +1100 - Win Total 10.5 (-105)
Open up ya pocket book
Additional opponents: @Cin, @Phi, Atl
Hand up - I (Brandon) have a massive man crush on Kyle Shanahan. So much so that I blindly, having done zero research at all, bet the Niners to win the Super Bowl in 2019 at +2000. This set up a great hedge to get the Chiefs at a decent number, but what’s crazy is that the Niners almost fucking won it! Think about that - Shanahan, as an OC in Atlanta, had the Falcons up 28-3 against the Pats in the SB, and then the Niners a few plays away from beating the Chiefs two years later. What’s most unfortunate for his time as head coach has been the shit injury luck. The Niners lost Jimmy G, Kittle, Deebo, Bosa, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman last year. We’re betting on that not happening again, and now they’ve got an exciting young buck backing up Jimmy should he go down again. Shanahans record with Jimmy G is 24-9. Without? 7-27. Love what the Niners did even after Lance, getting Aaron Banks from ND at right guard to pair next to LT Mglinchey (who’s also a former Irishmen). Then they took RB Trey Sermon in the third round, who looked likes he’s prime to be a candidate for steal of the draft. Shanahans offense loves to pound the rock, so we will be looking at a long shot bet with Trey here. Furthermore, we are ALL over the Niners.
The Pick: Niners Over 10.5; Niners to win SB +1100, Sermon leading rusher +7000; Sermon OROY +2000
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1
Lots to read in this weeks email, so we will try to keep this short and sweet.
Favorite plays this weekend:
#10 UNC -5.5 @ Virginia Tech
This is a Friday night game in Blacksburg, and Hokie Stadium is selling alcohol for the first time in 56 years. Sam Howell looks legit, but UNC lost both their stud RB’s and top WR. They do however return all 5 offensive lineman. On the flip side, Hokies coach Justin Fuente is on the hottest of hot seats. If he doesn’t have his QB here in Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister, then he’s probably going to be playing a lot of golf soon. We like Tech in this one.
The Pick: Va Tech +6 (buy .5 a point)
Stanford +3 vs Kansas St
This game opened with Stanford as a 2 point favorite, and the line has moved BIGLY, even with the majority of tickets coming on the Cardinal. That’s because smart money is hitting K St, and we are following it. Who the fuck thought this was a good idea to put these teams in Cowboys Stadium? The average ticket cost right now is $6 (lol). K St beat Oklahoma last year before losing QB Skylar Thompson for the season to injury. He’s back, and we dig it. HC David Shaws time at Stanford is coming to an end. Their season win total is set at 4, and for good reason.
The Pick: Kansas St ML (-160)
Duke -6 @ Charlotte
This is the stinkiest line of the weekend. Duke beat this team last year 53-19. Now they are only a touchdown favorite? Ha, nice try odds makers! Not falling for it.
The Pick: Charlotte +6
#5 Georgia +3.5 vs #2 Clemson
I’ve seen a lot of people picking Georgia as their upset winner in the SEC, and even the Championship at +500. Not only that, but JT Daniels is getting a lot of love for the Heisman pick. I’m not buying it. Georgia has been recruiting out of it’s mind the last few years, but Clemson is right there with em. Tigers QB DJ Uiagileili stepped up at ND last year and looks ready to fill Lawrence’s shoes. Clemson is also returning 10 starters on defense. In Dabo we trust.
The Pick: Clemson ML (-150)
#16 LSU +3 @ UCLA (1-0)
Kind of odd that UCLA got to play a week zero game and LSU didn’t. They got a little tune up in, and looked pretty damn good. We’ve had this game circled since July. LSU is expected to have a big bounce back season, and this line seems a bit low. Chip Kelly has no more excuses and must get the Bruins offense going. They did just that in a 44-10 win against Hawaii, scoring 30 first half points. If you like LSU, then you love that big win as it moved the line down from -4. But we aren’t wavering from our initial thoughts.
The Pick: UCLA +3